Optimized spatial and temporal pattern for coral bleaching heat stress alerts for China's coral reefs.

Most studies on coral bleaching alerts use common Degree Heating Week (DHW) thresholds; however, these may underestimate historical patterns of heat stress for coral reef ecosystems. Taking an optimized DHW threshold for coral bleaching alerts for Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) products, we analyzed the precise spatial and temporal pattern of heat stress on China's coral reefs from 2010 to 2021 in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Beibu Gulf (BG). We compared acute heat stress using common and optimized thresholds. Results indicated that the ocean warming rate in 2010-2021 was approximately 0.43 ± 0.22 °C/10a, showing a significant increase in the northern SCS and the BG. More severe bleaching events were predicted by the optimized thresholds and the high-frequency areas were mainly in the northern SCS. The number and intensity of years with severe heat stress anomalies was in the order 2020 > 2014 > 2010 > 2015. Heat stress duration was the longest in the Xisha Islands among offshore archipelagos, and longest in 2020-2021 in Weizhou Island in BG in the relative high-latitude inshore reefs. These abnormal events were mainly caused by El Niño, but La Niña was also involved in 2020.

Study of the bleaching alert capability of the CRW and CoRTAD coral bleaching heat stress products in China's coral reefs.

Coral bleaching heat stress products provide real-time and rapid coral bleaching alerts for coral reefs globally. However, geographical variations in the alert accuracy of multi-source coral bleaching heat stress products exist. Taking the coral reefs in the South China Sea (SCS) as the study area, we evaluated and improved the coral bleaching alert capabilities of two coral bleaching heat stress products: Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD). Using in situ coral bleaching survey data and evaluation indicators, the optimized thresholds of degree heating weeks (DHWs) for coral bleaching alerts were determined. The results in the SCS indicated that, first, CRW was better than CoRTAD for coral bleaching event alerts. However, both products underestimated coral bleaching events using the common DHW thresholds of 4°C-weeks and 8°C-weeks. Second, the DHW optimized threshold for CRW was 3.32°C-weeks for coral bleaching event alerts and 4.52°C-weeks for severe coral bleaching event alerts. For CoRTAD products, the DHW optimized threshold was 2.36°C-weeks for coral bleaching event alerts and 4.14°C-weeks for severe coral bleaching event alerts. This study proposed a method to evaluate and optimize the alert capability of multi-source coral bleaching heat stress products, which can provide more accurate basic data for coral reef ecosystem health assessment and contribute to global coral reef ecosystem protection and restoration.